The Interplay between Potential Capital Market Development and Bank Performance in an Emerging Economy Context: Do they Compete or Co-evolve?

Recent theoretical arguments regarding financial institutions and capital market relationships signpost a paradigm shift from a superiority to interdependence. This study investigated the interplay between potential capital market development and bank performance in an emerging market context. To achieve its objective, the study used primary data collected through interviews with subject matter experts, consultants and seasoned leaders. The AHP and DEMATEL multi-criteria models were employed to establish a level of importance and interdependence relationships. AHP results in descending order indicate liquidity, capital adequacy, asset quality, profitability and efficiency as key performance indicators of banks in Ethiopia. The bank-market interdependence analysis projects market capitalisation, efficiency and asset quality as causes for the group and liquidity, trade volume and profitability as effects for the group. The study predicted competitive interdependence in future bank-market interplay in Ethiopia. Following the competition from the capital market, Ethiopian banks will have lower liquidity, improved service, and a higher interest rate structure. To mitigate a potential liquidity crunch, the study proposed lowering asset maturity periods and raising capital adequacy as plausible central bank policy measures.