Designing a Long-term Occupancy Monitoring Plan for a Cryptic Reptile

Abstract. Monitoring populations of cryptic reptiles is challenging because of their crypticity. Occupancy monitoring is a useful technique for local populations, but seasonal unavailability for detection can result in large swings in apparent annual occupancy. We used data from 5 yr of occupancy surveys, and the observed sampling and process error, to evaluate the power to detect true change in occupancy under a range of sampling scenarios and occupancy trends for a cryptic reptile, Mojave Desert Tortoise (Gopherus agassizii) None of the sampling strategies that we tested had the power to detect a 1% per annum increase in true occupancy over a 10-yr period and required ≥70 sites to detect a 1% decline in occupancy. For a 2% per annum change in true occupancy, 50 sites were needed and for a 3–4% per annum change 20–30 sites were needed. Power to detect a 4% per annum decline in occupancy was >80% for all number of secondary visits and number of sites if the number of sites was ≥50, but required seven visits to ≥60 sites to detect a 4% increase in occupancy Multiple sampling designs provided equivalent power. For example, both designs of 80 sites with three secondary visits and 50 sites with seven secondary visits yielded >50% power on average to detect 1–4% per annum changes in true occupancy. These results can help local managers of Mojave Desert Tortoises and other cryptic reptiles to design optimally efficient occupancy monitoring strategies.