Climate-related natural disasters and forced migration: a spatial regression analysis

ABSTRACT We investigate the role of spatial effects in the analysis of the relationship between climate-related disasters and forced migration. As a case study we select South and Southeast Asia due to the area’s large exposure to these hazards. The spatial regressions show that short- to medium-distance forced migrations are considerably affected by climate-related disasters, independently of the economic expectation associated with the destination. Moreover, we find that this relationship is disaster-type specific. Finally, we detect a competition among migrants, as the decision to move as an adaptation strategy is found to be dependent on the migratory behaviour of neighbouring countries.