The 2018 Congressional Midterms, Symbolic Empowerment, and Ayanna Pressley’s Mobilizing Effect: A Case Study for Future Analysis of Historic Firsts

ABSTRACT Ayanna Pressley was elected in 2018, becoming the first Black woman from Massachusetts to serve in the US House of Representatives and the first person of color to represent its only majority-minority congressional district (which includes three-quarters of Boston, and most of Cambridge). While Pressley was no political newcomer to the city of Boston, her campaign garnered widespread media attention on account of her victory – that is, having defeated a ten-term incumbent, Michael Capuano, of the same political party. Here I argue that the electoral context mattered, given the historic nature of the campaign and its mobilizing effect on a racially and ethnically diverse electorate. Although highlighting qualifications and experience was the preferred tactic of her opponent, it was important for Pressley to choose a strategy that best fit the electoral context. Here I offer a case study, with information that will bear on the applicability of causal generalizations to be empirically tested via formal modeling or large-N analysis in future studies. The sort of specific, intensive, and detailed information provided is necessary in advance of forecasting results across similar subjects and comparable target populations using quantitative or statistical methods.