The Effects of Social Distancing Measures on COVID-19 Spreads in European Countries

Abstract This study investigates the effects of social distancing measures on various types of social mobility, using country- and day-fixed effects on a panel of daily data comprising 29 European countries. Although social distancing measures proved to be significant for all types of mobility in the examined period, they are best captured by retail and recreation mobility. Linear effects of restrictive measures on COVID-19 cases and deaths are examined by OLS regression with country- and day-fixed effects on a panel of 29 European countries, while non-linear effects were investigated by quantile regressions. Stricter mobility restrictions significantly reduced COVID-19 cases and deaths, but the variant of the virus was also an important determinant. Although the Delta variant was much more infectious, its mortality reduced. However, the impact of social distancing measures on COVID-19 cases and deaths was not constant but strengthened with increasing quantiles of the distribution of cases and deaths, suggesting that an early response from policy-makers was very important. Vaccination brought benefits for both cases and deaths, but a particularly beneficial effect can be seen on COVID-19 deaths. The vaccination benefits grew with the share of the vaccinated population. Distrust in public institutions proved to have a negative impact on both COVID-19 cases and deaths. The inclusion of a set of control variables (health, economic, social and demographic) revealed that country characteristics such as cardiovascular mortality, the share of male smokers, economic development, the proportion of the population living in extreme poverty, population density, the quality of education or the share of rural population were important determinants of COVID-19 spreads. The analysis of the linear and nonlinear effects of the stringency of measures on various categories of sales according to the digital cash collection system (eKasa) in Slovakia revealed that sales in essential sectors for consumers, such as retail and grocery stores, were relatively resistant to tightening measures, while sectors that are less essential for consumers were more sensitive to social distancing measures.