Environmental Niche and Demographic Modeling of American Chestnut near its Southwestern Range Limit

Abstract. The unintentional introduction and rapid spread of chestnut blight (caused by Cryphonectria parasitica (Murr.) Barr) in the early 20th century resulted in the demise of American chestnut (Castanea dentata (Marsh.) Borkh.; Fagaceae) as a major component of forest canopies resulting in negative impacts on eastern forest communities. Research efforts over the last century have documented the persistence of occasional trees and root crown/ stump sprouts throughout much of the species' historic range, providing the basis for ongoing breeding of blight-resistant trees and restoration efforts. Here we use environmental niche modeling to investigate whether environmentally suitable habitat remains for remnant trees throughout the southwestern historical range, and to evaluate the reintroduction potential of this relatively understudied part of the historical distribution. We also use stage-structured matrix projection models to investigate the potential demographic future of C. dentata near the historical southwestern range limit based on observations of American chestnut in these areas over the last several decades. We found suitable upland habitat with areas of high forest canopy cover occurs throughout much of the southwestern portion of the historical range and that populations of American chestnut in these areas are predicted to drastically decline over the coming decades. These results highlight the continued presence of suitable C. dentata habitat throughout the southwestern extent of its historical distribution, which should be incorporated into evaluations for future reintroduction, and emphasize the need for efforts to locate, conserve, and introduce genetic material from individuals with locally adapted genotypes into active restoration programs.