世界经济中油价下跌——主要原因和后果。2014/2015年案例分析

Joanna Bogołębska
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文的目的是调查2014/2015年期间油价下跌的主要决定因素和影响。无论是理论文献还是实证文献,文献中都没有出现油价暴跌的情况,而是出现了价格上涨的情况。在经济中,暴跌的情况不如上涨的情况那么常见,而且前者的负面后果应该没有后者那么严重。根据上次油价暴跌的经验,我们可以看到,出口国和进口国都可能受到负面影响。本文主要基于国际货币基金组织和世界银行的两份广泛报告以及一系列出版物。它讨论了调整政策的问题,特别是财政和汇率政策,以及出口国在管理外部和财政不平衡的过程中所采取的结构改革。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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Spadek cen ropy naftowej w gospodarce światowej – główne przyczyny i konsekwencje. Analiza na przykładzie okresu 2014/2015
The aim of the article is to investigate the main determinants and implications of the fall of oil prices during the period of 2014/2015. The episodes of oil prices’ plunge are not presented in the literature, both theoretical and empirical one, as much as the episodes of price increases. The episodes of plunge are not as common in the economy as episodes of increases, and the negative consequences of the former are supposed not to be as severe as these of the latter. On the basis of the experiences of the last oil price plunge one can see the negative consequences can tackle both exporters and importers. The article is based mainly on two broad reports, of IMF and World Bank, and a set of publications. It discusses the problems of adjustment policy, especially fiscal and exchange rate policies, and structural reforms taken by exporting countries in the process of management of external and fiscal imbalances.
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审稿时长
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