Beliefs About the Role of Effort and Luck During the Great Recession in Spain

The authors explore the effect of the recent unemployment shock in Spain on people’s beliefs about the role of effort as a determinant of economic position. They use a series of Spanish public opinion surveys between 2010 and 2018, matched with regional-level unemployment data and find that people attribute a larger role to luck in provinces where the unemployment rate increased more during the economic recession. This finding persists after controlling for a series of demographic, socio-economic and ideological individual-level variables. In addition, the authors find that lower educated individuals, and those who position themselves as more left-wing have adjusted their beliefs more, while individuals who identify as conservative have adjusted their beliefs less.