模拟小岛屿发展中国家在地球范围内实现可持续发展目标的国家转型

IF 4.6 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Global Sustainability Pub Date : 2021-04-21 DOI:10.1017/sus.2021.13
Cameron Allen, G. Metternicht, T. Wiedmann, Matteo Pedercini
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引用次数: 5

摘要

可持续发展目标(sdg)为到2030年实现可持续发展提供了一个综合的、雄心勃勃的路线图。国家执行将是至关重要的,迫切需要了解实现这些目标的改革的规模和速度。人们还担心,实现社会经济目标将破坏长期的环境可持续性。本研究以斐济为例,利用建模方法探索不同的政策和投资环境如何实现必要的转变。未来10年的适度投资可以改善业绩。然而,需要采取更加雄心勃勃的行动来加速进展,同时管理与环境目标之间的长期权衡。本文介绍了斐济国家情景建模研究的结果,该研究对寻求实现可持续发展目标的其他国家具有更广泛的相关性。我们使用综合(isdg -斐济)系统动力学模型开发并模拟了一种“一切照常”和六种可替代的未来情景,并评估了它们在2030年可持续发展目标和2050年全球地球边界(PBs)以及“安全与公正空间”(SJS)框架方面的表现。在未来十年,通过“可持续转型”情景进行适度投资,到2030年可持续发展目标的进展将从40%加快到70%,但未能达到可持续发展目标的所有门槛。通过可持续发展目标转型情景大幅扩大投资和雄心,斐济有可能在2030年之前将进展加快到83%,同时改善可持续发展目标的绩效。投资规模雄心勃勃,没有扩大的国际支持就无法实现,但尽管如此,投资进展仍然不足。分析强调了仍然存在的关键权衡以及解决这些问题的选择,然而将差距缩小到100%的成就将是非常具有挑战性的。该方法和研究结果与具有类似特点的其他国家具有相关性,以增进对在不同国家背景下实现可持续发展目标所需的转型的理解。各国如何加快到2030年实现可持续发展目标的进程,同时确保长期符合气候和可持续性阈值?
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Modelling national transformations to achieve the SDGs within planetary boundaries in small island developing states
Non-technical summary The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) provide an integrated and ambitious roadmap for sustainable development by 2030. National implementation will be crucial and there is an urgent need to understand the scale and pace of transformations to achieve the goals. There is also concern that achieving socio-economic objectives will undermine longer-term environmental sustainability. This study uses modelling to explore how different policy and investment settings can enable the necessary transformations, adopting Fiji as a use-case. Modest investment over the coming decade can deliver improved performance. However, far more ambitious actions are needed to accelerate progress while managing long-term trade-offs with environmental objectives. Technical summary This paper presents the results from a national scenario modelling study for Fiji with broader relevance for other countries seeking to achieve the SDGs. We develop and simulate a business-as-usual and six alternative future scenarios using the integrated (iSDG-Fiji) system dynamics model and evaluate their performance on the SDGs in 2030 and global planetary boundaries (PBs) and the ‘safe and just space’ (SJS) framework in 2050. Modest investment over the coming decade through a ‘sustainability transition’ scenario accelerates SDG progress from 40% to 70% by 2030 but fails to meet all SJS thresholds. Greatly scaling up investment and ambition through an SDG transformation scenario highlights possibilities for Fiji to accelerate progress to 83% by 2030 while improving SJS performance. The scale of investment is highly ambitious and could not be delivered without scaled-up international support, but despite this investment progress still falls short. The analysis highlights where key trade-offs remain as well as options to address these, however closing the gap to 100% achievement will prove very challenging. The approach and findings are relevant to other countries with similar characteristics to increase the understanding of the transformations needed to achieve the SDGs within PBs in different country contexts. Social media summary How can countries accelerate progress on the SDGs by 2030 while ensuring longer-term coherence with climate and sustainability thresholds?
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来源期刊
Global Sustainability
Global Sustainability Environmental Science-Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law
CiteScore
10.90
自引率
3.60%
发文量
19
审稿时长
17 weeks
期刊最新文献
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