The impact of increases in log import prices under Russia’s control of log exports on the market price of timber products in China

ABSTRACT Russia is China’s main log supplier and has implemented a series of log export control policies. The implementation of Russia’s export control policy has inevitably had an impact on China’s timber processing industry. This paper uses breakpoint regression to analyse the impact of the increase in the import price of logs under the Russian log export control policy on the market price of timber products in China. The results show that under the control policy, the increase in log import prices had a significant positive impact on the timber product market when April 2008, January 2010 and January 2019 were the breakpoints. Due to the lag effects in price transmission, the impact on China's timber product market was not reflected when July 2007 and January 2018 were the breakpoints. Based on the research conclusions, this paper puts forward some suggestions from the perspective of China’s log supply security.