中欧ECHAM5-Wiso模式月δ18O降水时间序列的验证和偏误校正

V. Salamalikis, A. Argiriou
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引用次数: 1

摘要

同位素能GCM(iGCM)降水的模拟稳定氧同位素组成(δ18O)目前已获得显著关注。与中欧上空的全球降水同位素网络(GNIP)观测相比,本研究评估了偏差校正技术,以减少ECHAM5-wiso模型模拟的δ18O的系统偏差和分散偏差。根据偏差校正方案,平均偏差误差(MBE)和均方根误差(RMSE)分别显著降低了70%和10%以上,对于广义加性模型(GAM)和线性缩放方法(SCL)具有更好的结果。偏差校正的δ18OECHAM5 wiso值成功地描述了降水的长期同位素组成和同位素振幅,具有EQM方法的最佳性能。在ECHAM5 wiso无法再现观测到的同位素变异性的高海拔地区,校正后的δ18OECHAM5 wiso与GNIP之间的良好一致性验证了应用偏差校正算法的必要性。这些结果有望为iGCM关系在气候研究中的应用带来有价值的见解,以在同位素角度下理解当前和过去的水循环。
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Validation and Bias Correction of Monthly δ18O Precipitation Time Series from ECHAM5-Wiso Model in Central Europe
Simulated stable oxygen isotopic composition (δ18O) of precipitation from isotope-enabled GCMs (iGCMs) have gained significant visibility nowadays. This study evaluates bias correction techniques to reduce the systematic and dispersion biases of the modelled δ18O by the ECHAM5-wiso model compared to the Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation (GNIP) observations over Central Europe. mean bias error (MBE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) are substantially reduced by more than 70% and 10%, respectively, depending on the bias correction scheme, with better results for Generalized Additive Model (GAM) and linear scaling approach (SCL) methods. The bias-corrected δ18OECHAM5-wiso values successfully describe the long-term isotopic composition of precipitation and the isotopic amplitude with the best performances for the EQM method. The necessity of applying bias correction algorithms is verified by the excellent agreement between the corrected δ18OECHAM5-wiso with GNIP in high-altitude areas where ECHAM5-wiso fails to reproduce the observed isotopic variability. The results are expected to bring valuable insights into the utilization of iGCMs’ relationships in climate studies for understanding the present and past water cycle under the isotopic perspective.
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