Ogbomosho降雨趋势时间变化的年代分析

K. O. Suleman, L. A. Sunmonu, G. A. Àlàgbé, A. L. Sheu, Suliat Kemi Rasaq
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摘要

尼日利亚气象局(NIMET)提供了10年(2009-2018年)的月度降雨量数据。使用OriginPro 8.5软件对数据进行处理和分析。使用标准差和变异系数(CV)等统计工具进行数据表示,同时使用线性回归的Mann-Kendall和Sen斜率进行分析,以检查月份和年份的变化。结果显示,7月和9月前后的数值较高,而12月和1月左右的数值较低。季节变异性显示出显著的增加趋势,但湿后除外,后者记录了不显著的下降趋势。Mann-Kendall和Sen的斜率估算分析揭示了研究期间降雨量的下降和上升趋势,某些年份的变化非常显著,而其他年份的变化则较小。这一结果将大大有助于研究区域内严重依赖雨水的社会经济活动的有效管理和可持续发展。
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Decadal analysis of temporal variability in rainfall trends in Ogbomosho
Ten-year (2009-2018) monthly rainfall data was obtained from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET). The data was processed and analysed using OriginPro 8.5 software. Statistical tools such as standard deviation and Coefficient of Variation (CV) were used for data presentation while analyses were done using the Mann-Kendall and Sen’s slope of linear regression to examine variations across the months and years. Results revealed higher values around July and September while lower values were recorded around December and January. Seasonal variability shows a remarkable increasing trend with the exception of post-wet which recorded an insignificant downward trend. The Mann-Kendall and Sen’s slope estimator analyses revealed both downward and upward trends in rainfall the study period and the changes are strongly marked for certain years and less for others. This result would contribute significantly to the effective management and sustainable development of the social economic activities which are heavily rain-dependent, within the study area.
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