Will China complete the 4.79-billion-ton railway freight transportation goal: An incremental potential research from the supply side

In 2018, China's State Council proposed a 30% increase in railway freight volume (RFV) to 4.79 billion tons in 2020 over 2017. Subsequently, more than 30 provinces and cities in China have issued corresponding transportation structure adjustment plans, but the completion of this task has not been very smooth. The growth rate in 2019 is slower than that in 2018, and the incremental task in 2020 still remains 42.7%. China's railway freight transportation capacity (RFTC) used to be in short supply for a long time, which has only eased in recent years. In order to explore the adaptation of China's current RFTC and incremental targets, and fully tap RFTC potential to formulate reasonable freight increment policies in the future, this article combines the simultaneous production and consumption feature of transportation sector and SBM-GRS (slack based measure-general returns to scale) data envelopment analysis to measure China's RFTC surplus space. The study found that from the supply side the incremental potential of China's railway freight turnover (RFT) is greater than that of RFV, which is caused by the imbalance of regional railway freight transportation. If the current RFV goal was replaced by RFT, RFTC input would save about 3%. This article suggests that China's future railway freight increment policy should take into account the regional imbalance of bulk cargo transportation, pay more attention to the growth of RFT, actively take advantage of railway container long-distance transportation, and make full use of overall RFTC.