Exploring the temporal and spatial variability of water and land resources carrying capacity based on ecological footprint: A case study of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration, China

In recent years, with the rapid social and economic development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region (the Jing-Jin-Ji region), ecological and environmental problems have become increasingly prominent. The shortage of water and land resources continues to affect the sustainable development of the ecological carrying capacity. Thus, a comprehensive evaluation method of water and land resource carrying capacity based on ecological footprint theory and spatial analysis with geographic information system (GIS) is proposed. The method aims to correct the following flaws in the evaluation of carrying capacity of water and land resources: (1) less consideration of the coupling performance of water and land resources, and (2) the lack of objective analysis on the weights of different water and land resource types. The method is applied in a case study of the Jing-Jin-Ji region, China. The results show that half of the cities in the Jing-Jin-Ji region are under uncoordinated and unsustainable status on water and land resources. Especially in Beijing and Tianjin, water and land resources are running an ecological deficit under “extremely uncoordinated” (less than 0.5 in the study years). And for the sustainable level, the ecological carrying capacity shows a deficit under unsustainable status in Beijing, Tianjin and the central and south part of Hebei province (−0.05 hm² for water resources in Xingtai, Handan and Hengshui, less than −0.2 hm² for land resources in Baoding and Cangzhou). Therefore, improving the management system of water and land resources and changing the way of production and consumption to promote sustainable and coordinated ecological development is recommended.