地中海东部和中东的气候变化和极端天气

IF 25.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Reviews of Geophysics Pub Date : 2022-06-28 DOI:10.1029/2021RG000762
G. Zittis, M. Almazroui, P. Alpert, P. Ciais, W. Cramer, Y. Dahdal, M. Fnais, D. Francis, P. Hadjinicolaou, F. Howari, A. Jrrar, D. G. Kaskaoutis, M. Kulmala, G. Lazoglou, N. Mihalopoulos, X. Lin, Y. Rudich, J. Sciare, G. Stenchikov, E. Xoplaki, J. Lelieveld
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引用次数: 65

摘要

基于观测和模拟的研究已经确定东地中海和中东(EMME)地区是一个突出的气候变化热点。虽然一些倡议已经解决了气候变化对EMME部分地区的影响,但在这里,我们提出了一项更新的评估,涵盖了广泛的时间尺度、现象和未来路径。我们的评估是基于对最近观测和预测的修订分析,以及对最近关于区域气候变化的原因和影响的科学文献的广泛概述。EMME的温室气体排放量正在迅速增长,超过欧盟,因此对气候变化做出了重大贡献。在过去的半个世纪里,特别是近几十年来,EMME的变暖速度明显快于其他有人居住的地区。与此同时,水文循环的变化也变得明显。最近观测到的每十年约0.45°C的温度上升趋势预计将继续,尽管全球温室气体的大力减排可能会减缓这一趋势。除了预测平均气候条件的变化外,我们还呼吁关注具有潜在破坏性社会影响的极端天气事件。其中包括热浪、干旱和沙尘暴的严重程度和持续时间急剧增加,以及可能引发山洪暴发的暴雨事件。我们的回顾还包括对该地区大气污染和土地利用变化的讨论,包括城市化、荒漠化和森林火灾。最后,我们确定了可能受到严重影响的部门,并制定了适应和研究建议,以提高EMME地区对气候变化的适应能力。
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Climate Change and Weather Extremes in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East

Observation-based and modeling studies have identified the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East (EMME) region as a prominent climate change hotspot. While several initiatives have addressed the impacts of climate change in parts of the EMME, here we present an updated assessment, covering a wide range of timescales, phenomena and future pathways. Our assessment is based on a revised analysis of recent observations and projections and an extensive overview of the recent scientific literature on the causes and effects of regional climate change. Greenhouse gas emissions in the EMME are growing rapidly, surpassing those of the European Union, hence contributing significantly to climate change. Over the past half-century and especially during recent decades, the EMME has warmed significantly faster than other inhabited regions. At the same time, changes in the hydrological cycle have become evident. The observed recent temperature increase of about 0.45°C per decade is projected to continue, although strong global greenhouse gas emission reductions could moderate this trend. In addition to projected changes in mean climate conditions, we call attention to extreme weather events with potentially disruptive societal impacts. These include the strongly increasing severity and duration of heatwaves, droughts and dust storms, as well as torrential rain events that can trigger flash floods. Our review is complemented by a discussion of atmospheric pollution and land-use change in the region, including urbanization, desertification and forest fires. Finally, we identify sectors that may be critically affected and formulate adaptation and research recommendations toward greater resilience of the EMME region to climate change.

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来源期刊
Reviews of Geophysics
Reviews of Geophysics 地学-地球化学与地球物理
CiteScore
50.30
自引率
0.80%
发文量
28
审稿时长
12 months
期刊介绍: Geophysics Reviews (ROG) offers comprehensive overviews and syntheses of current research across various domains of the Earth and space sciences. Our goal is to present accessible and engaging reviews that cater to the diverse AGU community. While authorship is typically by invitation, we warmly encourage readers and potential authors to share their suggestions with our editors.
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