Explicating a gut feel--Benchmarking the chance for exploration success

There is a 50--50 chance for adequate trap, seal, source, reservoir, and the likelihood for oil. So, the probability for a successful oil find is 3%. A checklist of 33 inquiries is offered as a yardstick for measuring the adequacy of petroleum prospect factor conditions. Each of the inquiries is a part of an overall test that good prospects should pass. Application of the checklist results in probability assignments to the chance for commercial exploration success. The paper discusses exploration forecasts, industry standards, prospect assessment critical paths, historical rates of success, exploration yardsticks, the checklist, applying the checklist, a case study, and its chance for commerciality.