Socioeconomic Factors, Income Transfer Program, and the Presidential Election of 2014: Regional Voting Patterns in Brazil

Abstract An academic debate underway has sought to understand geographical polarization in the Brazilian presidential election. Recent studies have analyzed the additive effects on regional voting behavior from an economic, social, and institutional perspective, sometimes including the income transfer program Bolsa Família. However, these dimensions potentially form multiple distinct configurations that lead to a high or low voting result (percentage). The aim of this paper is to identify these logical combinations and analyze them to shed light on the regional patterns that are most consistent with the in the 2014 presidential election. The main findings suggest that the logical combination of a high percentage of Bolsa Família beneficiaries and a low degree of economic development or unfavorable domicile, urban, and social conditions covers 83% of the cases. This regional pattern of logic configurations was consistent with the pattern of voting based on political party.