Nordic Cultural Baselines: Accounting for Domestic Convergence and Foreign Policy Divergence

The five Nordic countries converged remarkably when developing domestic institutions, but they diverged significantly when developing foreign policies. Grid-group theory prescribes four contending cultures—hierarchy, egalitarianism, individualism, and fatalism—and offers a basis for understanding the structure of political coalitions and conflicts. Surveys from the five Nordic countries measuring cultural baselines are used to estimate the degree of convergence and divergence. The countries converge with reference to high agreement with egalitarianism, individualism, and hierarchy, and disagreement with fatalism. This concords with the historically strong regime of social democracy in this region. The five countries diverge with reference to their foreign policy in that they polarize along two dimensions. To the east, there is increasing fatalism associated with countries not being members of NATO; to the north, there is increasing egalitarianism associated with countries not being members of the European Union. Given the importance of popular support through referenda, an eventual accession of Norway and Iceland to the EU cannot happen unless egalitarianism diminishes among their publics.