粮食产量估算“通道-概率模型”的验证

Q3 Agricultural and Biological Sciences 农业资源与环境学报 Pub Date : 2016-07-01 DOI:10.13254/J.JARE.2015.0194

Zheng Hongyan, Liang Jing-ya, Liu Shutian, Huang Zhiping, Mi Changhong, Hou Yan-lin

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引用次数: 0

摘要

可以不使用小趋势修正和气候年型修正;省级、地区级和县级的估产由于同处一个气候区,因此气象条件对产量影响的互补性不强,必须使用小趋势修正和气候年型修正,县级估产还必须增加根据作物适时长势和专家经验的修正。(2)小趋势修正有两个公式: 当预测误差小于 10%时,使用 Y伊(1-K)修正;当预测误差大于 10%时,使用 Y / (1+K)修正。(3)估产单元气候年型可以自动划分,一般分为 5级,波动大的预测单元可以使用 7级,其中超丰年和超欠年的修正参数必须根据实时气象条件和作物实时长势具体确定。 (4)研究表明:“通道-概率”估产理论和方法是科学的、实用的和准确的;在小趋势修正和气候年型修正基础上,如能结合作物长势调查和当地专家经验,估产误差可以达到 3%以下。关键词:粮食估产;通道-概率模型;验证中图分类号:S114 文献标志码:A 文章编号:2095-6819(2016)04-0390-07 doi: 10.13254/j.jare.2015.0194

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Verification of “Channel-Probability Model” of Grain Yield Estimation

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来源期刊

农业资源与环境学报 Agricultural and Biological Sciences-Agricultural and Biological Sciences (all)

CiteScore

1.90

自引率

0.00%

发文量

4438

审稿时长

24 weeks

期刊介绍： Journal of Agricultural Resources and Environment (CN 12-1437/S, ISSN 2095-6819) is a national academic scientific and technical journal. It was founded in 1984, and used to be called Foreign Agricultural Environmental Protection and Agricultural Environment and Development. It is supervised by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, and co-sponsored by the Scientific Research and Monitoring Institute of Environmental Protection of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, and the China Association of Agricultural Ecological Environmental Protection. The journal is one of China's high-quality science and technology journals, China Science Citation Database (CSCD) core journals, Peking University Chinese core journals, China Science and Technology core journals, China Agricultural and Forestry core journals, and Tianjin Outstanding Journals. It is included in the international authoritative databases, such as Scopus database of the Netherlands, the database of the Center for International Agricultural and Biological Sciences Research (CABI) of the United Kingdom, the Stephens Database (EBSCOhost) of the United States, the Ulrichsweb (Ulrich's Guide to Journals) of the United States, EuroPub of the United Kingdom, the Abstracts Journal (AJ) of the Russian Federation, and the Copernicus Index (IC) of the Poland, and so on.