Why Tickle the Dragon’s Tail?

The security situatsssion across the Taiwan Strait has recently deteriorated rapidly. Scholars and policymakers have attributed this development to the concurrence of an increasingly assertive Communist Party in China, a unilateralist Trump administration in the US, and a new DPP government in Taiwan since 2016. For the Taiwanese, the security concern is on their doorstep, but their attitudes are under-studied. I find that judgments of China’s animosity to Taiwan, China’s importance for Taiwan’s economy, (dis)agreement with the “one country, two systems” formula, concern regarding developments in Hong Kong, (dis)agreement with alliance with Japan and the US, (dis)belief in the US’s security commitment to Taiwan, and perception of the comparative strength of China versus the US are closely associated with respondents’ choice to ally with China or the US. These findings also shed light on Taiwanese (over)optimism regarding the US’s role in the wake of Chinese invasion of Taiwan.