西欧阿拉伯之春的回响

Q1 Arts and Humanities Mezhdunarodnye Protsessy Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI:10.17994/it.2021.19.2.65.7
N. Khokhlov, A. Vasiliev, A. Belichenko, P. Kirdyankina, Andrey Korotayev
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引用次数: 1

摘要

我们的分析允许我们谈论西欧阿拉伯之春的两波回响。第一波发生在2011年,主要表现为和平抗议活动的爆炸性增长。考虑到阿拉伯之春事件对西欧抗议活动直接影响的数据,2011年西欧反政府示威、骚乱和总罢工数量的爆炸性增长在很大程度上可归因于阿拉伯之春的影响。2012-2014年,西欧的抗议运动获得了自己的逻辑,并在相当高的水平上继续下去,尽管“阿拉伯冲动”消失了——这在很大程度上是受第二波金融和经济危机的影响。2014年至2015年,西欧出现了第二波阿拉伯之春的回声,其间出现了明显的时滞。主要表现为恐怖主义(主要是伊斯兰教)活动的快速增长。阿拉伯之春的后果之一是几个足够有效的阿拉伯独裁政权的崩溃或急剧削弱,这导致各种恐怖主义组织活动的可能性大大增加,其力量、影响和组织形式的有效性迅速增长,包括网络空间,这对西欧非常重要。恐怖主义活动通过各种渠道从阿拉伯国家渗透到西欧:难民、ISIS相当有效的网络宣传、圣战分子返回西欧等等。第二次浪潮表现为抗议活动有所增加,但它与2011年的抗议活动根本不同,因为2011年的抗议活动主要是由右翼势力组织的反对移民浪潮的抗议活动,而移民浪潮在很大程度上是由阿拉伯之春的海啸引起的。
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Echo of Arab Spring in Western Europe
Our analysis allows us to talk about two waves of the echo of the Arab spring in Western Europe. The first wave was observed in 2011 and was expressed in the explosive growth of mainly peaceful protests. Taking into account the data on the direct impact of the events of the Arab Spring on the protest activity in Western Europe, the explosive increase in the number of anti-government demonstrations, riots and general strikes recorded in Western Europe in 2011 can be attributed to the influence of the Arab Spring up to a very considerable extent. In 2012–2014 the protest movement in Western Europe acquired its own logic and continued at a fairly high level, despite the disappearance of the "Arab impulse" – to a large extent under the influence of the second wave of the financial and economic crisis. The second wave of the echo of the Arab spring in Western Europe was observed with a noticeable time lag in 2014–2015. and manifested primarily in the form of rapid growth of terrorist (mainly Islamist) activities. One of the consequences of the Arab Spring was the collapse or sharp weakening of several sufficiently effective Arab authoritarian regimes, which led to a significant improvement in the possibility of the activities of terrorist organizations of various kinds, the rapid growth of their strength, influence and effectiveness of organizational forms – including, which is very important for Western Europe, in cyber space. Terrorist activities penetrated from Arab countries to Western Europe through various channels: refugees, quite effective Internet propaganda of ISIS, jihadists returning to Western Europe, and so on. The second wave was expressed in a certain increase in protest activity, but it radically differed from the protests in 2011, since in the latter case it was a matter of the protests organized mainly by the right-wing forces against the migrant wave, which was generated to a very high degree by the tsunami of the Arab Spring.
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来源期刊
Mezhdunarodnye Protsessy
Mezhdunarodnye Protsessy Arts and Humanities-History
CiteScore
0.60
自引率
0.00%
发文量
9
审稿时长
34 weeks
期刊介绍: “International Trends” (“Mezhdunarodnye protsessy”) was established in 2002 as the first Russian TIR journal. As of the early 2010s, it holds a strong position among the top three Russian thematic academic journals (according to the Russian Science Citation Index). The Journal’s key mission is a theoretical comprehension of the world as a whole, of international tendencies and the planetary political environment, and of the world-integrity our country finds herself in and develops with.
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