中国的低生育率:趋势、政策和影响。

Baochang Gu
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引用次数: 8

摘要

中国目前是世界上人口最多的国家。2000年第五次全国人口普查报告中国大陆总人口为12.7亿,2005年11月进行的全国1%人口抽样调查(小普查)报告中国大陆总人口为13.1亿(国家统计局2006年)。中国也是拥有最严格和政府指导的计划生育计划和生育政策的国家,生育率从20世纪50年代的每名妇女5到6个孩子急剧下降到近年来的不到2个。2000年的人口普查报告显示,中国的总生育率(TFR)为1.4。中国人口动态的快速变化要求从趋势、政策和影响等方面对中国的生育转型进行回顾。本文将首先从人口增长、出生率和生育率两个方面探讨中国的人口动态,然后考察中国政府实施的生育政策,然后从人口老龄化、性别平等、出生性别比和劳动力供给等方面探讨生育率下降的影响。(摘录)
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Low fertility in China: Trends policy and impact.
China currently is the country with the largest population in the world. The Fifth National Population Census in 2000 reports that the total population of mainland China stands at 1.27 billion while the 1 Percent National Population Sample Survey (mini-census) carried out in November 2005 reports the total population to be at 1.31 billion (National Statistics Bureau (NSB) 2006). China is also the country with the most stringent and government-directed family planning programme and fertility policy having experienced a dramatic decline in fertility from 5 to 6 children per woman in the 1950s to less than 2 in recent years. The 2000 census reports Chinas total fertility rate (TFR) to be at 1.4. The rapid changes occurring in Chinas population dynamics call for a review of the fertility transition in China in terms of trends policy and impact. This article will first discuss the population dynamics ongoing in China in terms of growth birth rate and fertility and then examine the fertility policy implemented by the Government of China before exploring the impact of fertility decline in terms of population ageing gender equality sex ratio at birth and labour supply. (excerpt)
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