南苏拉威西海藻养殖的生产风险:Cobb-Douglas和Just-Pope生产函数的比较

Nurdin Kasim, M. Megawati, A. Arifah, W. Hidayati
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引用次数: 4

摘要

棉花真草(Eucheuma cottonii)养殖场产量波动可能受到气候、病虫害、投入因素、农民管理和社会经济条件的影响。本研究的目的是:(1)分析生产率的决定因素;(2)分析影响生产风险的因素;(3)分析考虑生产风险后影响生产率的因素。本研究采用比例随机抽样的方法选取了210名海藻养殖户。采用M多元线性回归模型,采用Cobb-Douglas和Just-Pope生产函数对数据进行分析。结果表明:(1)种子数、种子黏结距离和劳动对棉藻生产力有正向影响;(2)种子面积、种子粘接距离对生产风险有负向影响;(3)考虑风险后,地块面积、种子面积、种子黏结距离、劳动力和农民经验对生产率有正向影响,而农民年龄对生产率有负向影响。回归系数值对褐藻生产力有显著影响(Cobb-Douglas模型),考虑生产风险后褐藻生产力呈下降趋势(Just-Pope模型)。这意味着在分析海藻产量时,需要考虑模型中的风险。
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Production Risk of Seaweed Cultivation in South Sulawesi: Comparison between Cobb-Douglas and Just-Pope Production Function
Fluctuation in production on farm of seaweed Eucheuma cottonii could be affected by climate, pests and diseases, input factors, management and socio-economic conditions of farmers. The objectives of this study were (1) analyzed determinants of productivity, (2) analyzed the factors that affected the risk of production, and (3) analyzed the factors that affected productivity after considering the risk of production. The samples used in this study were 210 seaweed farmers selected by using proportional random sampling method.  M ultiple linear regression model with Cobb-Douglas and Just-Pope production functions were used to analyze the data. The results showed that (1) Productivity of seaweed E. cottonii positively influenced by number of seeds, bond distance of seeds and labor ; (2) area of lots, seeds and  bond  distance of seeds negatively effected the risk of production ; and (3) area of lots , seeds,  bond  distance of seeds, labor, and  experience of farmers  positively effected the productivity after considering of risks whereas age of farmers affected negatively .  Values of  regression  coefficient had significant affected the productivity of seaweed E.cottonii (Cobb-Douglas model) tended to decline after considering the risk of production (Just-Pope model) . This implies that in analyzing seaweed productivity, it needs to consider the risks in the model.
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