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引用次数: 0

摘要

现在越来越多的科学关注社会过程。这是一个相对较新的,但非常重要的方向,因为这一领域的知识可能对现代生活的许多领域产生重大影响。本文的目的是建立一个现代社会舆论动态的模型。该模型是迭代的,并考虑了许多现代社会的典型特征。该模式的关键组成部分之一是政党。他们对舆论有重大影响。该模型考虑了大众传媒的影响。它认为既独立又受政党控制的大众媒体。该模型还考虑了社交网络、信使和电话的影响。此外,它还考虑到每个州的地理位置,州或社会群体之间的共同边界长度以及每个州可能不同的人口密度。该模型的开发考虑了计算机实现,这大大简化了进一步的步骤。本文作者使用Python编程语言实现了该模型,用户界面使用tkinter库,结果显示使用matplotlib库。他还给出了一些实现建议和性能优化。所实现的模型具有灵活、易于理解和编辑的配置,使用起来非常方便。在文章的最后部分,对所建立的模型进行了实例测试,结果可以预测。第一个例子显示了两个政党的辩论,其中第一个政党有明显的优势。第二种情况显示了模拟社会的两极分化,每种意识形态在一个单独的区域占主导地位。最后一个例子表明,在模拟社会中,一个对几乎所有大众媒体都有重大控制的政党获胜。通过对案例的仿真,模型显示出与预期相似的结果,表明本文所建立的模型是正确的。
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Model of public opinion dynamics in modern society
Nowadays more and more scientific interest is paid to social processes. It is relatively new, but very important direction because knowledge in this area might have significant impact in many fields of modern life. The purpose of this article is to create a model of public opinion dynamics in modern society. The model is iterative and considers a number of features which are typical for modern society. One of the key components of the model is political parties. They have significant influence on the public opinion. The model takes into account the impact of mass media. It considers both independent and controlled by a political party mass media. Also the model considers influence of social networks, messengers and telephony. In addition, it takes into account geographical position of each state, length of common border between states or social groups and possibly different density of population in each of the states. The model is developed with computer implementation in mind, which significantly simplifies further steps. The author of the article implemented the model in Python programming language with help of tkinter library for user interface and matplotlib for results displaying. Also he gives some implementation advice and performance optimizations. The implemented model has flexible and easy to understand and edit configuration, which makes using of it very convenient. In the last part of the article the built model was tested against several cases which results could be predicted. The first case shows debate of two political parties where first one has notable advantage. The second case shows polarization of the simulated society, where each ideology dominates in a separate region. The last case shows winning of a political party which has significant control over almost all mass media in the simulated society. After simulations of the cases, the model showed results similar to what was expected which indicates that the created in this article model is correct.
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