Factors affecting fertility in Pakistan.

Data of the Pakistan Contraceptive Prevalence Survey of 1984-85 were used to determine whether there are any differentials in fertility levels by age at marriage, educational level, work status, region of residence (province), and place of residence (urban or rural) in Pakistan. Both bivariate and multivariate analyses examined the effects of these factors on fertility. The technique of Multiple Classification Analysis (MCA) was used to determine the net effect of each factor. Among the predictors, age at marriage was the most significant variable, followed by the husband's education, woman's education, husband's occupation, woman's work status, region, and place of residence. Among the demographic variables, age and age at marriage were the most important determinants of fertility. Among the socioeconomic variables, the educational level of both husband and wife were important determinants of cumulative fertility. Age at marriage was inversely related to fertility. The mean number of children ever born was 5.1 for those who married below age 16 vs. 4.1 for age at marriage 16-19, and 3.6 for 20-24. In the multivariate analysis the effect of age at marriage was the strongest as a predictor. Education had a negative effect on fertility. The mean number of children ever born to women with no education was 4.5; to women with primary education, 3.6; to women with secondary education, 3.2; and to women with tertiary education, 2.3. Women working as salaried employees had higher fertility (5.0) compared to women working in family business or at home (4.2). Women whose husbands worked as salaried employees had comparatively lower fertility than those whose husbands were working in their own business or in agriculture. The region of residence did not yield wide differentials. Furthermore, place of residence did not reveal any significant difference in fertility. The mean number of children was marginally higher among urban women (4.4) compared to their rural counterparts (4.2), indicating that the fertility transition has not started yet.