Fishing in the NAFO Regulatory Area: Integrated Modeling of Resources, Social Impacts in Canada and EU Fleet Viability

This paper presents an integrated spreadsheet model of the biological, social, and economic attributes of the international groundfishery on the Grand Banks in NAFO Divisions 3LNO. The historical involvement of the fisheries is traced from 1972 to the present. The model explores the impacts of the fishery on: (1) the status of six key Grand Banks groundfish stock populations, (2) the economics of the international commercial fishery, especially as experienced by Canada, Spain and Portugal, and (3) the social status of Atlantic Canadian coastal communities dependent on the Grand Banks fishery. Groundfish catches in the Grand Banks NAFO Regulatory Area (NRA) are used to estimate the implications on the annual integrated (harvesting and processing) economic performance of the fishing fleets. Social impacts of the fisheries on the labour opportunities in Canadian communities are also analysed. The integrated spreadsheet model is used to explore the impacts on stocks, fisheries, and communities under alternative assumptions about actual fishery removals. The results enable an improved understanding of the underlying historical behaviour of declining Northwest Atlantic groundfish stocks, economic viability from fishing, and the decline of Canadian coastal communities. Evidence from integrated modeling point out shortcomings associated with not knowing actual removals from fishing by NAFO contracting parties operating on the Grand Banks, and the need to establish better fisheries management data, control, and compliance in contrast to the uncertain gains from expending significant scientific effort on attempts to understand complex stochastic marine ecosystems as proposed in NAFO reform.