折扣或交易:双日期混合结果跨期选择的心理机制

Si‐Chu Shen, Yao-Min Wang, Han-Bing Zhang, Jia-Tao Ma
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引用次数: 0

摘要

个人、企业和国家需要在现实生活中做出涉及不同时间节点的决策。这类决策通常用行为决策领域的“跨期偏好”来衡量。实际上,与生存和发展相关的最重要和最关键的跨期决策是具有双重日期混合结果的跨期选择。然而,现有的以纯收益结果为衡量标准的跨期偏好不能很好地预测现实生活中的远视行为。此外,成熟的跨期选择理论模型也不能令人满意地解释人们的真实跨期偏好。为了更好地描述和解释双日期混合结果下人们的跨期选择,本项目拟:1)利用两种不同的逻辑综合双日期混合结果下的跨期选择指标,为模型比较提供预测指标;2)构建双日期结果跨期选择测度的新生态范式,为后续研究提供更具生态性和预测性的测度;3)采用Mouselab和眼动追踪技术,检验效用比较模型和属性比较模型哪一种模型能更满意地解释具有双日期结果的跨期偏好。
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Discount or trade off: The psychological mechanisms of intertemporal choice with double-dated mixed outcomes
: Individuals, enterprises and countries need to make decisions involving different time nodes in real life. Such decisions are commonly measured by "intertemporal preference" in the field of behavioral decision-making. Actually, the most important and crucial kind of intertemporal decision making relevant to survival and development are intertemporal choice with double-dated mix outcomes. However, existing intertemporal preferences measure by paradigms with pure gain outcomes was found to be poor predictors of far-sighted behavior in real life. Besides, mature theoretical models of intertemporal choice could not satisfactorily explain people's real intertemporal preferences. To better describe and explain people's intertemporal preferences with double-dated mixed outcomes, the present project intends to: 1) synthesize indicators of intertemporal choice with double-dated mixed outcomes by using two different logics, providing predictive indicators for model comparison; 2) develop a new ecological paradigm of measuring intertemporal choice with double-dated outcomes, aiming to provide a more ecological and predictive measurement for the development of following research; 3) adopt the Mouselab and eye-tracking technique to test which model could more satisfactorily explain intertemporal preference with double-dated outcomes, the utility comparison model or the attribute-comparison model.
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