俄罗斯经济生态现代化的前景

G. Safonov, V. Potashnikov, M. Safonov, A. Stetsenko, M. Kozeltsev, A. L. Dorina, A. A. Semakina, A. Sizonov
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引用次数: 0

摘要

俄罗斯经济在过去20年的发展是基于对自然资源的集约化开采,这导致对环境的负面影响显著增加,包括污染和温室气体排放的增加。在全球一级,环境问题也在恶化,国际社会通过了若干条约,旨在实现可持续、社会和环境平衡发展的目标。世界经济的“绿色”转型导致能源、工业、运输系统的根本性变化,转向生态友好的商业模式,资金流动和投资转向世界经济的脱碳。如果俄罗斯经济的生态现代化无法实现,那么逐步淘汰化石燃料和污染密集型产品可能会导致俄罗斯出口收入的重大损失,缺乏获得资本和投资的渠道。基于TIMES模型的预测显示,到2050年,俄罗斯有能力将温室气体排放量在1990年的基础上减少75-88%,而人均GDP将增长三倍。它将确保到2060年达到碳中和目标,并遵守生态公约和协议下的国际承诺。
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The prospects for ecological modernization of Russian economy
Development of the Russian economy over the last 20 years was based on intensive exploitation of natural resources that has led to a signifi cant increase of negative impacts on the environment, including growth of pollution and emissions of greenhouse gases. The environmental problems are also worsening on the global level, and the international community adopted several treaties aimed at reaching the goals of sustainable, socially, and environmentally balanced development. The “green” transformation of world economy leads to the fundamental changes in energy, industries, transport systems, switch to the eco-friendly business models, orientation of fi nancial fl ows and investments towards decarbonization of world economy. Phasing-out of fossil fuels and pollution-intensive products may result in signifi cant losses of export revenues, lack of access to capital and investment for Russia, if the ecological modernization of its economy would not happen. The projections based on TIMES model showed that Russia is capable to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 75–88% below 1990 level by 2050, while GDP per capita would increase threefold. It would ensure reaching the carbon neutrality goal by 2060 and compliance with the international commitments under the ecological conventions and agreements.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
1.00
自引率
20.00%
发文量
33
期刊介绍: Key Journal''s objectives: bring together economists of different schools of thought across the Russian Federation; strengthen ties between Academy institutes, educational establishments and economic research centers; improve the quality of Russian economic research and education; integrate economic science and education; speed up the integration of Russian economic science in the global mainstream of economic research. The Journal publishes both theoretical and empirical articles, devoted to all aspects of economic science, which are of interest for wide range of specialists. It welcomes high-quality interdisciplinary projects and economic studies employing methodologies from other sciences such as physics, psychology, political science, etc. Special attention is paid to analyses of processes occurring in the Russian economy. Decisions about publishing of articles are based on a double-blind review process. Exceptions are short notes in the section "Hot Topic", which is usually formed by special invitations and after considerations of the Editorial Board. The only criterion to publish is the quality of the work (original approach, significance and substance of findings, clear presentation style). No decision to publish or reject an article will be influenced by the author belonging to whatever public movement or putting forward ideas advocated by whatever political movement. The Journal comes out four times a year, each issue consisting of 12 to 15 press sheets. Now it is published only in Russian. The English translations of the Journal issues are posted on the Journal website as open access resources.
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