“伟大的美国就业机器”发生了什么?

Q3 Social Sciences International Journal of Microsimulation Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI:10.34196/IJM.00211
Matteo G. Richiardi, B. Nolan, L. Kenworthy
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在20世纪80年代和90年代,美国的就业率稳步上升,到2000年,它已成为富裕民主国家中就业率最高的国家之一。从那以后,它的绝对价值和相对于其他国家的价值都有所下降。我们对美国和英国进行了深入的比较,以探讨美国最近表现不佳的原因。与通常的说法相反,比较的观点表明,美国劳动力参与率的下降并不局限于(白人)男性;女性参与率的差异甚至更为明显。我们没有发现证据表明,美国经济表现不佳与2008-09年大衰退(Great Recession)等周期性模式有关;相反,它是一种更普遍、更长期的现象。与英国相比,美国劳动参与率的相对下降可归因于教育等社会人口特征的变化,以及这些特征影响的变化,这些特征对劳动参与率更加不利。
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What happened to the 'Great American Jobs Machine'?
In the 1980s and 1990s the US employment rate increased steadily, and by 2000 it was one of the highest among the rich democratic nations. Since then it has declined both in absolute terms and relative to other countries. We use an in-depth comparison between the United States and the United Kingdom to probe the causes of America's poor recent performance. Contrary to a common narrative, a comparative perspective suggests that the decline in US labour force participation is not confined to the (white) male population; the divergence in the female participation rate is even more pronounced. We do not find evidence that the poor US performance is linked to cyclical patterns, such as the 2008-09 Great Recession; instead, it is a more pervasive, longer-run phenomenon. The relative decline of US participation rates compared to the UK is attributable to shifts in socio-demographic characteristics, such as education, and to shifts in the impact of those characteristics, which have become more adverse to participation.
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来源期刊
International Journal of Microsimulation
International Journal of Microsimulation Mathematics-Modeling and Simulation
CiteScore
0.80
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期刊介绍: The IJM covers research in all aspects of microsimulation modelling. It publishes high quality contributions making use of microsimulation models to address specific research questions in all scientific areas, as well as methodological and technical issues. IJM concern: the description, validation, benchmarking and replication of microsimulation models; results coming from microsimulation models, in particular policy evaluation and counterfactual analysis; technical or methodological aspect of microsimulation modelling; reviews of models and results, as well as of technical or methodological issues.
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