中欧和东南欧天然气:市场统一和新挑战

IF 0.4 Q4 BUSINESS, FINANCE Public Finance Quarterly-Hungary Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI:10.35551/pfq_2022_3_3
András Giday, László Fritsch
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引用次数: 0

摘要

天然气消费及其来源对所有欧洲国家来说都是一个战略问题。我们的研究考察了中欧和东南欧的天然气消费,该地区的消费水平和结构,并分析了过去15年的网络发展和液化天然气港口的建设。欧盟采用的规则通过提供对网络使用的准入,创建了一个统一的市场。自上世纪70年代天然气管道建设以来,从俄罗斯进口的天然气在中欧和东南欧的供应中占据主导地位。在过去的10-2年里,从东方到欧洲的更多大容量管道已经建成,这为该地区国家创造了新的连接点。在本区域各国之间建立了互连器之后,现在可以认为本区域的市场是统一的,以适中的费用提供进入网络的机会。与此同时,该地区的天然气消费和运输一直是且仍然是高度政治化的问题。一方面,新的气候政策概念和宣布的协议具有相当大的影响,另一方面,地缘政治紧张局势也影响天然气的运输。到2021年,消费量仍有可能增加。这是因为该地区的国家希望从燃煤发电厂转向以可再生能源和天然气为基础的发电,而巴尔干半岛新的南部管道将允许比以前更多的进口。在变化的情况下,预计以前计划的天然气使用水平将会减少。高昂的价格,以及俄罗斯天然气进口可能受到冷战气氛限制的事实,也是指向这一方向的因素。
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Natural Gas in Central and Southeastern Europe: Market Unification and New Challenges
Gas consumption and its source are a strategic issue for all European countries. Our study examines the consumption of natural gas in Central and Southeastern Europe, the level and structure of consumption in the region, and analyses the network developments and the construction of LNG ports over the past decade and a half. The rules adopted by the EU created a unified market by providing access to the use of the network. Since the construction of natural gas pipelines in the 1970s, gas imports from Russia have played a dominant role in the supply of Central and Southeastern Europe. In the last 10–2 years, further large capacity pipelines have been built from the east to Europe, which created an opportunity for new connection points for the countries in the region. With the interconnectors built between the individual countries of the region, the market of the region can be now considered unified, where access to the network is provided at moderate costs. At the same time, the consumption and transport of natural gas in the region have been and still are highly politicised issues. On the one hand, the new climate policy concepts and agreements announced have a considerable impact and, on the other hand, geopolitical tensions also affect the transport of natural gas. In 2021, an increase in consumption was still likely. This was due to the fact that the states in the region wished to shift from coal-fired power plants to electricity generation based on a combination of renewables and natural gas, while the new southern pipelines in the Balkans would have allowed for greater imports than before. In the changed circumstances, the previously planned level of natural gas use is expected to be reduced. High prices and the fact that access to Russian gas imports may even be limited due to the atmosphere reminiscent of the Cold War are also factors that point in this direction.
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CiteScore
0.90
自引率
40.00%
发文量
30
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