基于灰色Verhulst方法的台湾人口分析

IF 1 4区 工程技术 Q4 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Journal of Grey System Pub Date : 2005-07-01 DOI:10.30016/JGS.200507.0003
Kun-Li Wen, Yi-Fung Huang
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引用次数: 5

摘要

人口预测原则是发展中国家最重要的政策之一,人口数字是资源非常有限的政府使用公式的基础。如果种群数量显著增加,或者增长逆转,那么整个生态平衡将受到严重影响。因此,首先,文章的重点是使用灰色Verhulst方法试图为人口构建饱和数。在本文中,还开发了一个工具箱,以提供一种非常方便的方法来生成实际情况的大量数值分析。最后,以台湾地区人口饱和数为例进行预测,结果显示台湾地区人口饱和数不会超过2300万。基于以上方法,得到的完整结果不仅提供了饱和数,而且可以为人口源的最佳布局提供参考政策。
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The Analysis of Population in Taiwan Based on Grey Verhulst Method
The principle of population prediction is one of the most important policies for developing countries, and population numbers are a basis for the formula used by the government with very limited resources. If the population increases significantly, or growth is reversed, then the entire balance of the ecology will be seriously impacted. Therefore, at first, the article focuses on the use of the Grey Verhulst method trying to construct saturation numbers for the population. In this paper, a toolbox is also developed to provide a very convenient way of generating a great numerical analysis of a real case. Finally, an example is given to predict saturation numbers of the population numbers in Taiwan, and the results tell us it will not exceed 23 million. Based on the above methods, the full results not only provide the saturation numbers, but also can become the reference-making policy for the best layout of the population source.
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来源期刊
Journal of Grey System
Journal of Grey System 数学-数学跨学科应用
CiteScore
2.40
自引率
43.80%
发文量
0
审稿时长
1.5 months
期刊介绍: The journal is a forum of the highest professional quality for both scientists and practitioners to exchange ideas and publish new discoveries on a vast array of topics and issues in grey system. It aims to bring forth anything from either innovative to known theories or practical applications in grey system. It provides everyone opportunities to present, criticize, and discuss their findings and ideas with others. A number of areas of particular interest (but not limited) are listed as follows: Grey mathematics- Generator of Grey Sequences- Grey Incidence Analysis Models- Grey Clustering Evaluation Models- Grey Prediction Models- Grey Decision Making Models- Grey Programming Models- Grey Input and Output Models- Grey Control- Grey Game- Practical Applications.
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