1960—2008年鄱阳湖流域降水时空变化分析

Lifeng Yuan, Guishan Yang, Hengpeng Li, Zeng-xin Zhang
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引用次数: 6

摘要

利用距平分析、简单线性回归、Mann-Kendall趋势检验和连续小波变换等方法,对1960—2008年鄱阳湖流域17个雨站的长期逐月降水资料进行分析,探讨了鄱阳湖流域年、季降水的时空变化特征。结果表明:(1)夏季和冬季降水呈增加趋势,春季和秋季降水呈减少趋势,且上述趋势不具有统计学意义;(2)年平均面降水量变化趋势不显著增加,除西部和东南部少部分地区外,几乎全流域均有增加趋势;(3) 1991—2008年和1960—2008年的季节和年降水距平空间分布与1960—2008年的季节和年降水趋势相似;(4) 1960—2008年降水序列有3个主要时频分布,分别为18—26 a、8—14 a和2—8 a;因此,年降水序列存在3个主要周期,分别为11年、22年和5年。研究结果将为进一步研究鄱阳湖流域水资源的可利用性、科学管理和评价提供依据。
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Spatio-Temporal Variation Analysis of Precipitation during 1960-2008 in the Poyang Lake Basin, China
Long-term monthly precipitation data from 1960 to 2008 at 17 rain stations are analyzed to explore spatio-temporal variation of the seasonal and annual precipitation in the Poyang Lake basin, China, using anomaly analysis, simple linear regressive technique, Mann-Kendall trend test and Continuous Wavelet Transform. The results indicate that: (1) increasing precipitation trend is observed in summer and winter, while decreasing precipitation trend is identified in spring and autumn, and the above mentioned precipitation trends are not statistically significant; (2) changing trend of the areal average annual precipitation is non-significantly increasing, and increasing trend happens in almost the whole basin except in western and south-eastern small parts; (3) the spatial distribution of the seasonal and annual precipitation anomalies between 1991-2008 and 1960-2008 is similar to that of seasonal and annual precipitation trend during 1960-2008; (4) three main time-frequency distributions are observed in annual precipitation series during 1960- 2008, and they are 18 - 26 years, 8 - 14 years and 2 - 8 years, respectively; accordingly, there are three main periods in annual precipitation series, and they are 11-year, 22-year and 5-year respectively. This result will be helpful for further research on availability, scientific management and assessment of the water resources of the Poyang Lake basin.
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