斯洛伐克保守派-自由派分裂的地理和影响保守派和自由派选民分布的选定因素

IF 0.5 Q3 GEOGRAPHY Geographia Cassoviensis Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI:10.33542/gc2021-2-05
Tomáš Harmaňoš, Martin Plešivčák
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文的主要目的是根据过去二十年议会选举的结果,确定具有更保守选民的政党和具有更自由选民的政党在时间和空间上的成功率,并对选定的社会经济参数(城市化率,登记失业率,65岁以上人口的比例,有宗教信仰的人的比例(受过大学教育的人的比例)以及保守派或自由派选民的空间分布。我们确定了2002年以来整个斯洛伐克共和国以及其地区和地区的议会选举中,更保守或更自由选民的政党的成功率,同时也通过对家庭公投的空间分解结果(2015年)来评估这个问题。根据统计分析,斯洛伐克的自由派选民更明显地集中在城市地区,特别是在失业率较低、受过大学教育的人和非宗教居民比例较高的地区。另一方面,保守派选民在全国范围内的分布更为均匀,在与信奉某种宗教的人口比例相关的监测社会经济指标中,他们的统计关联最高。就保守-自由冲突线而言,在被检查的变量中,最高的汇总统计依赖性被确定为城市化程度、无宗教信仰的人的比例和受过大学教育的人的比例的指标。在当前开放自由主义或世俗思想的社会形势下,未来以特定政党和相当数量的选民为代表的保守主义和自由主义价值观在政治斗争中的冲突似乎将变得更加显著,而且不仅仅是在后社会主义国家。更重要的是这些研究,例如,在建立适当的政治营销和有效的政党选举运动的背景下。
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Geography of the conservative-liberal cleavage and selected factors influencing the distribution of conservative and liberal voters in Slovakia
The main aim of the paper is to identify the success rate in time and space of political parties with a more conservative electorate and those with a more liberal voters in Slovakia based on the results of parliamentary elections in the last twenty years and to conduct a subsequent correlation analysis of selected socioeconomic parameters (urbanisation rate, registered unemployment rate, the share of persons over 65 years of age, the share of persons with religious faith and share of university-educated persons) and the spatial distribution of conservative or liberal voters. We identify the success rate of parties with a more conservative or more liberal electorate at the level of the Slovak Republic as a whole, as well as in its regions and districts, in the parliamentary elections from 2002 onward, while also evaluating the issue through the spatially disaggregated results of the referendum on the family (2015). Based on statistical analysis, liberal vote rs in Slovakia are more notably concentrated in urban areas, particularly in districts with a lower level of unemployment, a higher share of people with a university education and non-religious residents. On the other hand, conservative voters are more evenly distributed throughout the country, and in their case, the highest statistical association identified among the monitored socioeconomic indicators related to the share of the population professing a certain religion. The highest summary statistical dependence among the examined variables in terms of the conservative-liberal conflict line was identified for indicators of the degree of urbanisation, the share of persons without religious confession and the share of university-educated people. It seems, given the current social situation opening up the liberal or secular ideas, that in the future the conflict of conservative and liberal values represented by specific parties and a significant number of voters in political struggle will become more significant, and not only in post-socialist countries. All the more important will be such studies, e.g. also in the context of setting up appropriate political marketing and effective election campaigns of political parties.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
0.80
自引率
0.00%
发文量
4
期刊介绍: Geographia Cassoviensis is a biannual peer-reviewed journal published by the Pavol Jozef Šafárik University in Košice since 2007. It is available both in print and open-access electronic version. The journal publishes original research articles from Geography and other closely-related research fields. Since 2016 the journal is indexed in SCOPUS and ERIH PLUS - European Reference Index for Humanities and Social Sciences, and since 2017 also in Emerging Sources Citation Index by Clarivate Analytics.
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