过去和未来的气候预测及其与人类社会的关系-一次时间之旅

R. Bojariu
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引用次数: 0

摘要

当前,气候变化问题已成为国家、区域和全球各级决策者的首要议程。尽管我们使用的研究工具存在不可避免的不确定性,但气候科学直接有助于我们社会的社会经济规划。本报告从未来社会发展的角度回顾了与气候模拟相关的研究,气候模拟是一种产生知识的工具,可应用于地球和人类历史上过去和现在的气候变化以及相关的不确定性。该报告表明,在适应当前气候变化的背景下,忽视过去和未来气候的相关不确定性可能导致高昂的社会、经济和环境成本。
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Past and future climate projections and their relevance for human society – a journey in time
Present climate change issues have reached the top on the agenda of decision makers on national, regional and global level. Climate science directly contributes to socio-economic planning in our society despite the unavoidable uncertainties associated to the research tools we have used. The presentation reviews the research related to climate modeling as a tool for generating knowledge applied to past and present climate changes in Earth and human history and associated uncertainties from the perspective of future society development.  The presentation shows that, in the context of adaptation to present climate change, ignoring knowledge together with related uncertainties about past and future climate might lead to high social, economic and environmental costs.
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