{"title":"艾滋病毒/艾滋病疫苗在南非的潜在效果","authors":"L. Johnson, R. Dorrington","doi":"10.4314/SAAJ.V7I1.24509","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"This paper presents a model for assessing the potential effect of an HIV / AIDS vaccine in South Africa, and for calculating the amount of vaccine that would be required. A number of different hypothetical vaccine profiles and vaccine distribution strategies are considered. Results suggest that a sterilising vaccine could reduce the HIV incidence between 2015 and 2025 by up to 50%, while a disease-modifying vaccine would be unlikely to reduce HIV incidence by more than a third. The effect on AIDS mortality over the same period would be substantially smaller, and it is unlikely that any preventive vaccine would reduce AIDS mortality by more than 10% between 2015 and 2025.","PeriodicalId":40732,"journal":{"name":"South African Actuarial Journal","volume":"7 1","pages":"49-72"},"PeriodicalIF":0.1000,"publicationDate":"2007-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"The potential effect of an HIV / AIDS vaccine in South Africa\",\"authors\":\"L. Johnson, R. Dorrington\",\"doi\":\"10.4314/SAAJ.V7I1.24509\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"This paper presents a model for assessing the potential effect of an HIV / AIDS vaccine in South Africa, and for calculating the amount of vaccine that would be required. A number of different hypothetical vaccine profiles and vaccine distribution strategies are considered. Results suggest that a sterilising vaccine could reduce the HIV incidence between 2015 and 2025 by up to 50%, while a disease-modifying vaccine would be unlikely to reduce HIV incidence by more than a third. The effect on AIDS mortality over the same period would be substantially smaller, and it is unlikely that any preventive vaccine would reduce AIDS mortality by more than 10% between 2015 and 2025.\",\"PeriodicalId\":40732,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"South African Actuarial Journal\",\"volume\":\"7 1\",\"pages\":\"49-72\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.1000,\"publicationDate\":\"2007-01-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"South African Actuarial Journal\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.4314/SAAJ.V7I1.24509\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q4\",\"JCRName\":\"BUSINESS, FINANCE\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"South African Actuarial Journal","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.4314/SAAJ.V7I1.24509","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"BUSINESS, FINANCE","Score":null,"Total":0}
The potential effect of an HIV / AIDS vaccine in South Africa
This paper presents a model for assessing the potential effect of an HIV / AIDS vaccine in South Africa, and for calculating the amount of vaccine that would be required. A number of different hypothetical vaccine profiles and vaccine distribution strategies are considered. Results suggest that a sterilising vaccine could reduce the HIV incidence between 2015 and 2025 by up to 50%, while a disease-modifying vaccine would be unlikely to reduce HIV incidence by more than a third. The effect on AIDS mortality over the same period would be substantially smaller, and it is unlikely that any preventive vaccine would reduce AIDS mortality by more than 10% between 2015 and 2025.
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