基于随机动态规划的Saravan森林公园可持续管理

S. Shirzadi, M. Sabouhi, R. E. Kenari
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引用次数: 1

摘要

本研究对桂兰萨拉万森林公园的可持续管理进行了规划。以2008 - 2038年为研究对象,考虑经济、生态和社会标准,以决策支持模型的形式对3个10年期间的国家公园进行了研究。运用层次模糊分析方法,得出经济、生态、社会三者同时达到最优水平,并作为它们在公园不同时期、决策和不同状态下的综合效用值。结果表明:为了同时达到最优的目的水平,在森林公园实施社会、生态和生态决策的第一个10年期初和第二个10年期初三种考虑状态下,分别给出了最大的目的综合效用值。随机动态规划结果表明,在第一个10年期初实施生态决策,在第二个10年期初考虑公园的第二设计状态实施生态决策,在第三个10年期初应用公园的第一设计状态实施社会决策,是实现Saravan森林公园可持续管理的理想选择。根据研究结果,实施这些确定的决策可以最大限度地利用公园在经济,社会,娱乐和本地物种保护和可持续发展方面的潜力,并以最佳条件将公园交还给下一代。
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Sustainable Management of Saravan Sylvan Park Using Stochastic Dynamic Programming
The present study sustainable management of Guilan Saravan Sylvan Park was planned. The used method in the form of decision support model in three10-year period was studied for parks of various states and with considering the economic, ecological and social criteria during the years 2008 to 2038. By using hierarchical fuzzy analysis method, the reaching to an optimal level of economic, ecological and social simultaneously and as their combined utility values in various periods, decisions and different states of park is obtained. The results showed that in order to reach to an optimal level of purposes simultaneously, at the beginning of the first 10-year period implementation of ecological decision, at the beginning of the second 10 years period in three considered states for the Sylvan Park implementation of social, ecological and ecological decisions give the most combined utility value of purposes respectively. Results of stochastic dynamic programming showed that implementing the ecological decisions at the beginning of the first 10-year period, implementing the ecological decision by considering the second designed state of park at the beginning of the second 10-year period, and by applying the first designed state of park at the beginning of third 10-year-old period, the implementation of social decisions is desirable to achieve sustainable management in Saravan Sylvan Park. According to the findings, the implementation of these determined decisions can be useful and maximum of desirable use from Park potentials in the economic, social - recreational and conservation and sustainability of indigenous species problems, and reposit the park to the next generation with the best condition.
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