{"title":"奇异谱分析中预测参数的自动选择研究","authors":"Safia Al-Marhoobi, A. Pepelyshev","doi":"10.4310/21-sii707","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Singular spectrum analysis (SSA) is a popular tool for analysing and forecasting time series. The SSA forecasting algorithms have two parameters which should be chosen by the researcher or using the so-called automatic choice based on the root mean squared errors (RMSE) of retrospective forecasts. We study the sensitivity of the RMSE and inves-tigate the reliability of the automatic choice of parameters for forecasting monthly temperature and humidity recorded at three meteorological stations in Oman.","PeriodicalId":0,"journal":{"name":"","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Study of automatic choice of parameters for forecasting in singular spectrum analysis\",\"authors\":\"Safia Al-Marhoobi, A. Pepelyshev\",\"doi\":\"10.4310/21-sii707\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Singular spectrum analysis (SSA) is a popular tool for analysing and forecasting time series. The SSA forecasting algorithms have two parameters which should be chosen by the researcher or using the so-called automatic choice based on the root mean squared errors (RMSE) of retrospective forecasts. We study the sensitivity of the RMSE and inves-tigate the reliability of the automatic choice of parameters for forecasting monthly temperature and humidity recorded at three meteorological stations in Oman.\",\"PeriodicalId\":0,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-01-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"100\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.4310/21-sii707\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"","FirstCategoryId":"100","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.4310/21-sii707","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
Study of automatic choice of parameters for forecasting in singular spectrum analysis
Singular spectrum analysis (SSA) is a popular tool for analysing and forecasting time series. The SSA forecasting algorithms have two parameters which should be chosen by the researcher or using the so-called automatic choice based on the root mean squared errors (RMSE) of retrospective forecasts. We study the sensitivity of the RMSE and inves-tigate the reliability of the automatic choice of parameters for forecasting monthly temperature and humidity recorded at three meteorological stations in Oman.