Mann-Kendal (MK)检验在气温和降水趋势分析中的应用——以塞尔维亚ma瓦地区为例

Nikola Milentijević, Nikola R. Bačević, Dušan Ristić, A. Valjarević, M. Pantelic, Dušan Kićović
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引用次数: 4

摘要

最近的气候变化造成了重大的自然和社会经济后果。它们代表了20世纪末和21世纪初的主要环境问题之一。温度和降水的变化对理解气候变化问题起着重要作用。它们包括许多极端气候事件,如热浪、干旱、森林火灾等等。从温度和降水制度变化的区域差异来看,南欧,包括塞尔维亚共和国,占据了一个特殊的位置。ma va区(3.272平方公里)几乎是ma va区面积的四倍。马瓦区行政政治区划由八个市组成。本文给出了研究区年平均气温和年平均降水量两个气候变量的变化趋势。在方法学意义上,主要的统计程序是非参数Mann-Kendall (MK)检验。使用了ma va地区三个可用气象站(1949-2015)的数据进行分析。气温变化趋势的结果表明,在历史序列中有统计学上显著的正趋势。在趋势上,两个时间序列的降水量呈统计学上显著的正趋势,而一个时间序列则没有趋势。所表达的趋势,特别是在空气温度的情况下,导致干旱的可能性。马瓦区和马瓦在塞尔维亚共和国具有一定的农业重要性。由于这些原因,由于干旱条件导致农业产量波动,需要对气候变化进行一些适应。
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Application of Mann-Kendal (MK) test in trend analysis of air temperature and precipitation: Case of Mačva district (Serbia)
Recent climate changes cause significant natural and socio-economic consequences. They represent one of the major environmental problems of the late 20 and early 21 centuries. Changes in temperature and precipitation play a significant role in understanding climate change issues. They include numerous extreme climatic events such as heat waves, droughts, forest fires and more. Looking at regional differences in temperature and precipitation regime change, Southern Europe, including the Republic of Serbia, occupies a special place. The Mačva district (3.272 km2) is almost four times as spacious as the Mačva area. The administrative -political division of the Mačva district is comprised of eight municipalities. The paper presents trends of two climate variables: mean annual air temperature and mean annual precipitation in the study area. In methodological sense, the main statistical procedure is the non-parametric Mann-Kendall (MK) test. Data from three available meteorological stations in the Mačva district (1949-2015) were used for the analysis. The presented results of the trends in air temperature indicate that there is a statistically significant positive trend in all-time series. In trends, precipitation amounts a statistically significant positive trend was observed in two time series, while in one there is no trend. The expressed trends, especially in the case of air temperatures, lead to the possibility of drought. Mačva district and Mačva have some agricultural importance in the Republic of Serbia. For these reasons, some adaptation to climate change is needed as arid conditions lead to fluctuations in agricultural yield.
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