Using radium isotopes to evaluate the uncertainty of submarine groundwater discharge in the northeast and entirety of Daya Bay

Submarine groundwater discharge (SGD), which can be traced using naturally occurring radium isotopes, has been recognized as a significant nutrient source and land-ocean interaction passage for the coastal waters of the Daya Bay, China. However, uncertainties in assessing SGD fluxes must still be discussed in detail. In this study, we attempted to utilize the Monte Carlo method to evaluate the uncertainties of radium-derived SGD flux in the northeast and entirety of the Daya Bay. The results show that the uncertainties of the SGD estimate in the northeast bay are very sensitive to variations in excess radium inventories as well as radium inputs from bottom sediments, while the uncertainties of the SGD estimate for the entire bay are strongly affected by fluctuations in radium inputs from bottom sediments and radium end-members of SGD. This study will help to distinguish the key factors controlling the accuracy of SGD estimates in similar coastal waters.