尼日利亚石油繁荣时期(1973-1983):农业真的被忽视了吗?

A. Ammani
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引用次数: 20

摘要

多年来,几位作者将尼日利亚农业生产的下降归因于原油发现导致农业部门被忽视,即所谓的石油繁荣因素。这篇论文的目的是寻找这个问题的答案:农业真的因为石油繁荣而被忽视了吗?该研究从历史角度追溯了尼日利亚农业部门资本支出分配的路径。在石油繁荣时期之前和期间,农业部门计划资本支出分配的次要数据;以及1977-1983年石油繁荣时期尼日利亚农业、水资源、卫生、教育和国防部门资本支出拨款的预算估计数的来源和使用。使用图形描述性统计和单向方差分析技术来实现研究目标。在进行的方差检验的单向分析中,Tukey的多重比较方法被用来确定在这两种情况下哪个平均值不同。实证研究结果表明,石油繁荣时期农业部门的资本支出配置数量显著增加;在石油繁荣时期,分配给农业部门的资本支出比分配给尼日利亚卫生、教育或国防部门的资本支出都多。因此,它的结论是,尼日利亚农业生产的下降在统计上不能归因于石油繁荣造成的对农业部门的忽视。其原因可能是荷兰病、自然资源诅咒、寻租现象或其他原因。
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Nigeria’s Oilboom Period (1973-1983): Was Agriculture Really Neglected?
Over the years several authors have attributed the decline in Nigerian agricultural production to the neglect of the agricultural sector that resulted from the discovery of crude oil, what is known as the oilboom factor. This paper set out to find answer to the question: was agriculture really neglected as a result of the oilboom? The study took a historical per- spective to trace the path of capital expenditure allocations to the agricultural sector in Nigeria. Secondary data on planned capital expenditure allocation to the agriculture sector before and during the oilboom period; and the budget estimates of capital expenditure allocations to the Agriculture, Water Resources, Health, Education and Defence sectors in Nigeria during the oil boom period 1977-1983 were sourced and used. Graphic descriptive statistics and the one-way analysis of variance technique were used to achieve the objectives of the study. The Tukey's Multiple Comparison method w as employed to determine which mean(s) differ, in both cases, in the one-way analysis of variance tests conducted. The empirical findings of the study indicate significant increase in the quantity of capital expenditure allocation to the agriculture sector during the oilboom period; and that more capital expenditure was allocated to the agriculture sector than was allocated to either of Health, Education or Defence sectors in Nigeria during the oilboom period. Thus, it concluded that the decline in agricultural production in Nigeria was, statistically, not attributable to the neglect of the agricultural sector resulting from oil boom. The reason could be as a manifestation of Dutch Disease, Natural Resource Curse, Rent Seeking phenomenom, or something else.
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