快照:通过结构条件和QCA发现有升级倾向的国家

IF 0.3 Q4 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Obrana a Strategie-Defence & Strategy Pub Date : 2020-12-16 DOI:10.3849/1802-7199.20.2020.02.005-018

K. Fridrichová, A. Ilavská

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摘要

本文介绍了一种基于开放资源的长期结构条件的冲突升级预测方法和QCA(定性比较分析)方法。这两个组件的组合提供了一个预测模型，可与其他更复杂和资源丰富的系统相媲美。此外，它提供了对升级的更敏感的估计。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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TAKING A SNAPSHOT: Discovering Escalation Prone Countries Through Structural Conditions and QCA

This paper introduces a method of conflict escalation prediction based on long-term structural conditions, drawn from open sources, and QCA (Qualitative Comparative analysis). The combination of the two components offers a model of prediction, which is comparable to other more sophisticated and resourced systems. Moreover, it offers a more sensitive estimation of an escalation.

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