空气污染物相互依赖的时间序列分析

Kuang-Jung Hsu
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引用次数: 41

摘要

采用统计时间序列分析方法,探讨台北地区一次与二次污染物的相互依存关系。利用向量自回归模型(VAR)的估计表明,2和4 h的时间滞后足以代表两个站点的观测值。利用矢量移动平均表示,导出了NO、NO2和O3的脉冲响应函数和方差分解,以检验一种物种对其他物种的显著性。根据结果,评价了光化学和输运过程对不同地点空气污染物的影响。这项技术可以为初步评价污染问题提供一个简单的工具。
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Time series analysis of the interdependence among air pollutants

A statistical time series analysis was applied to study the interdependence between the primary and secondary pollutants in the Taipei area. Estimations using the vector autoregression model (VAR) indicate that 2 and 4 h time lags are sufficient to represent the observed values at two stations studied. The impulse response functions and variance decompositions of NO, NO2 and O3 were derived using the vector moving average representations to examine the significance of one species on others. Influences of photochemistry and transport processes on these air pollutants at different locations were evaluated from the results. This technique may provide a simple tool for preliminary assessment of pollution problems.

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