g2edps的第一个模块及其第一个扩展模块

Burak Omer Saracoglu
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引用次数: 11

摘要

100%可再生全球电网(Global grid)系统需要一个具有极短期、短期、中期和长期预测控制台的全球电网电力需求预测系统(G2EDPS)。本文介绍了长期预测控制台的第一个核心模块及其10个扩展模块。1类Mamdani模糊推理系统(FIS)具有7个三角隶属函数和49条规则,为100年预测周期的2个输入和1个输出变量设计。最佳核心模块及其扩展模块的最大绝对百分比误差(MAP)、平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)和对称绝对百分比误差(SMAPE)分别为0、24;0, 08年;0,05和0,22;0, 07年;0 05。
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G 2 EDPS's First Module & Its First Extension Modules
100% renewable worldwide power grid (Global Grid) system needs a Global Grid Electricity Demand Prediction System (G2EDPS) with very short, short, medium and long term forecasting consoles. This paper presents the 1st core module and its 10 extension modules in the long term prediction console. A type 1 Mamdani like Fuzzy Inference System (FIS) with 7 triangle membership functions and 49 rules is designed for 2 input and 1 output variables for a 100 year forecasting period. The maximum absolute percentage errors (MAP), the mean absolute percentage errors (MAPE), and the Symmetric MAPE (SMAPE) of the best core module and its extension modules are respectively 0, 24; 0, 08; 0, 05 and 0, 22; 0, 07; 0, 05.
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