Aiding fossil fuel dependency: a cross-national analysis of energy sector aid, national autonomy, and CO2 emissions in 122 nations

Abstract In the past two decades, sociological research has flourished on the environmental impact of global financial flows from wealthy to poorer nations. The majority of this research, however, focuses on private financial flows such as foreign direct investment or World Bank lending. By contrast, this study examines how public aid dollars (energy sector foreign development aid) contributes to environmental degradation in developing nations. We also examine the effect of this aid relative to domestic autonomy, a form of good governance that measures a nation’s freedom to set its own domestic policy without interference from more powerful states. Using a longitudinal sample of 122 nations, we test the effects of aid and autonomy on CO2 emissions. In line with dependency theory, results show that aid donors encourage fossil fuel dependence in aid recipient countries and this leads to increased carbon dioxide emissions. Counter to some findings on good governance and the environment, our results do not show that domestic autonomy relates directly to carbon dioxide emissions. However, our results do suggest that more autonomous nations can offset the impact of fossil fuel development aid by imposing policies that push aid donors to invest in more environmentally-beneficial development projects.