Modeling Health Workforce Planning in Specialties and Subspecialties: A Need-Adjusted Demand Model

Background: Need and demand modeling is one of the conceptual approaches of health workforce planning. In many models of this field, “need” is not considered. Each country should model according to its context. Objectives: The present study aimed to design a need adjusted with demand model of the health workforce in the fields of specialties and subspecialties. Methods: Walker and Avant’s synthesis theory method was used for modeling in this study. The concepts of need and demand were chosen as the focal concepts. In addition, to find the components related to the concepts and the relationships between these components, the result of a previous systematic review and a supplementary study of viewpoints of research teams were used. In the last step, the graphic form of the model was presented. Results: The need-adjusted demand model was presented in this study. In this model, the types of flows were headcounts. Actual need, willingness, and ability to use health services were considered. Finally, the number of full-time equivalents of physicians was estimated. Conclusions: In this model, a series of main components that are headcounts and a series of influential factors that affect the main factors through rates were considered.