表征全球恐怖主义动态的阶段及其转变:多维尺度和可视化方法

António M. Lopes
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文提出了一种基于无监督机器学习的技术来发现表征全球恐怖主义动态的阶段和相变。本文分析了1970年至2019年期间全球恐怖事件的数据集。有关伤亡和事件的多维时间序列是从公共领域数据库生成的,并被解释为复杂系统的状态。对时间序列进行切片,生成的片段是表征动态过程的对象。通过多个距离对目标进行比较,并采用多维尺度(MDS)方法对目标进行分类。MDS生成对象的轨迹,其中时间作为参数变量显示。根据对象的模式对获得的肖像进行分析,表征系统动力学的性质。揭示了复杂的动力学,具有类似混沌行为,相位和相变的周期。结果表明,MDS是分析全球恐怖主义的有效工具,可以应用于其他复杂系统。
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Phases and Their Transitions Characterizing the Dynamics of Global Terrorism: A Multidimensional Scaling and Visualization Approach
This paper proposes a technique based on unsupervised machine learning to find phases and phase transitions characterizing the dynamics of global terrorism. A dataset of worldwide terrorist incidents, covering the period from 1970 up to 2019 is analyzed. Multidimensional time-series concerning casualties and events are generated from a public domain database and are interpreted as the state of a complex system. The time-series are sliced, and the segments generated are objects that characterize the dynamical process. The objects are compared with each other by means of several distances and classified by means of the multidimensional scaling (MDS) method. The MDS generates loci of objects, where time is displayed as a parametric variable. The obtained portraits are analyzed in terms of the patterns of objects, characterizing the nature of the system dynamics. Complex dynamics are revealed, with periods resembling chaotic behavior, phases and phase transitions. The results demonstrate that the MDS is an effective tool to analyze global terrorism and can be adopted with other complex systems.
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