Results from the prognostic analysis completed on the NASA extreme Ultra Violet Explorer satellite

This paper summarizes the results from the multi-year research program completed at U.C. Berkeley, Space Sciences Laboratory, Center for Extreme Ultra Violet Astrophysics (CEA) in collaboration with engineering personnel from the Advanced Analysis Department at Lockheed Martin Space Systems Company. The research used the NASA EUVE satellite subsystem and payload equipment analog telemetry from the NASA/U.C. Berkeley Extreme Ultra Violet Explorer, low earth orbiting space science satellite and predictive algorithms pioneered on the Air Force's Global Positioning System satellites to measure the EUVE satellite onboard equipment remaining usable life and predict EUVE satellite subsystem equipment failures. The results of the research conducted at the CEA has been repeated by other major aerospace companies and is used widely on several major aircraft programs in the new F-35 Joint Strike Fighter but is not acceptable in the manufacture and test of space vehicles. The research was approved by the Director of the Center of EUV Astrophysics and was to demonstrate that satellite subsystem equipment usable life could be measured accurately and that equipment failures could be predicted using predictive algorithms and satellite subsystem and payload equipment telemetry. The purpose of the research was to demonstrate to NASA GSFC space science personnel that EUVE CEA mission operations team was willing to risk the health of the EUVE satellite to increase the length of the EUVE science mission by using new technologies to lower the cost of the EUVE mission operations. Using PRA as the only tool to calculate equipment reliability, results in the belief that equipment failures cannot be predicted and so cannot be prevented. If the EUVE engineering team could prove the presence of behavior in equipment telemetry that always preceded a surprise failure, then the equipment could be identified and replaced prior to launch stopping the premature failures of NASA, Air Force and commercial satellites and launch vehicles. After the success obtained in the research completed on the NASA EUVE program, the author continued to design space vehicles to provide telemetry for measuring equipment usable life and complete prognostic analysis on NASA spacecraft to identify any on-board equipment that was going to fail prematurely for replacement at space vehicle factories.