2002年秘鲁经济乘数

J. Torres-Zorrilla
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摘要

本文说明了如何运用投入产出模型来估计秘鲁经济的投资和出口的乘数效应。一个结论是,服务业乘数大于工业乘数,而初级产品表现出中间乘数。另一个结论是,出口反映的乘数效应比投资高得多。服务部门的就业和工资乘数似乎大于现代出口部门(如采矿和冶金)和现代城市部门(如电力、保险、建筑和饮料)。
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Multipliers of the Peruvian Economy 2002
This article illustrates an application of the input-output model to estimate the multiplier effects of investments and exports of the Peruvian economy. One conclusion is that multipliers of services are greater than multipliers of industries while primary products exhibit intermediate multipliers. Another conclusion is that exports reflect a much higher multiplier effect than do investments. Employment and wage multipliers appear greater for service sectors than for modern exporting sectors, such as mining and metallurgy, and for modern urban sectors, such as electricity, insurance, construction, and beverages.
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