新冠肺炎疫情后ICT产业变化研究

Changgyu Yang
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引用次数: 2

摘要

目的探讨新冠肺炎大流行后ICT和全球价值链的变化。本研究利用ICT产品贸易数据和国民经济指标,比较了疫情前后韩国国内ICT产业、ICT进口和ICT出口的差异,提出了后疫情时代ICT产业的增长战略。为此,本研究确定了疫情前后韩国ICT产品进出口与综合指数之间的因果关系,并得出疫情后对ICT产业环境的影响。分析结果显示,新冠疫情后,韩国信息通信技术(ICT)产业发生了以下变化。(1)信息通信技术产业中半导体等非面对面和非接触式技术相关领域呈指数级增长;(2)随着美国成长为新的关键参与者,与中国(疫情前全球价值链的关键参与者)的因果关系消失;(3)信息通信技术产业的全球价值链不再是刚性的单向垂直结构,而是在国家间合作与竞争的影响下向柔性结构转变。研究结果表明,在后新冠肺炎时代,必须不断发展利用非面对面和非接触式技术的信息通信技术新产业,应对全球价值链变化的主要战略是主动获取源技术,并通过与其他全球价值链合作和资源共享来扩大规模。
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A study on the changes in the ICT industry after the COVID-19 pandemic
PurposeThe aim of this paper is to explore the changes in the ICT and global value chains (GVCs) after the COVID-19 pandemic.Design/methodology/approachThis study compared the difference between Korea’ domestic ICT industries, ICT imports and ICT exports before and after the COVID-19 outbreak by using trade data of ICT products and national economic indicators, and presents growth strategy for the ICT industry in the post-COVID 19 era. For this purpose, this study determined the causalities between Korea's imports/exports of ICT products and composite Indexes before and after COVID-19, and derived implications in the ICT industry environment after the COVID-19 pandemic.FindingsAnalysis results showed the following changes in Korea's ICT industry in the post-COVID-19 world. (1) Non-face-to-face and contact-free technologies related sectors in the ICT industry, such as the semiconductor sector, have grown exponentially; (2) as the USA has grown as the new key player, the causal relationship with China, a key player of the GVC in the pre-COVID-19 era, disappeared; and (3) the GVC of the ICT industry is not a rigid one-way vertical structure, but is changing to a flexible structure influenced by cooperation and competition between countries.Originality/valueThe results indicate that it is essential to constantly develop new ICT sectors that make use of non-face-to-face and contact-free technologies in the post-COVID-19 era, and the main strategies in response to the changed GVC would be taking the initiative by securing source technologies and expanding through cooperation with other GVCs and resource sharing.
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