{"title":"西巴尔干地区地缘政治发展情景的形成与比较","authors":"Danijel Bačan","doi":"10.21861/hgg.2023.85.01.05","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"The paper examines the geopolitical situation of the Western Balkans, a region defined along state borders by the European Union. The region includes Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Kosovo, North Macedonia and Serbia. For the purpose of the research, a survey was conducted among geography students in eight cities of the Western Balkans and in Zagreb. The survey was conducted according to the Delphi method in two rounds. By conducting research using a survey and the Delphi method, three scenarios of geopolitical development through 2031 were formed: \"Euro-Atlantic integration\", \"Status quo\" and \"Reconstruction of the Western Balkans\". By comparing the scenarios, it is apparent that the geopolitical development of the region in the next ten years will mostly follow the \"Status quo\" scenario, that is, according to the current geopolitical patterns of the region.","PeriodicalId":42319,"journal":{"name":"Hrvatski Geografski Glasnik-Croatian Geographical Bulletin","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.4000,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Formation and comparison of scenarios of geopolitical development of the Western Balkans\",\"authors\":\"Danijel Bačan\",\"doi\":\"10.21861/hgg.2023.85.01.05\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"The paper examines the geopolitical situation of the Western Balkans, a region defined along state borders by the European Union. The region includes Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Kosovo, North Macedonia and Serbia. For the purpose of the research, a survey was conducted among geography students in eight cities of the Western Balkans and in Zagreb. The survey was conducted according to the Delphi method in two rounds. By conducting research using a survey and the Delphi method, three scenarios of geopolitical development through 2031 were formed: \\\"Euro-Atlantic integration\\\", \\\"Status quo\\\" and \\\"Reconstruction of the Western Balkans\\\". By comparing the scenarios, it is apparent that the geopolitical development of the region in the next ten years will mostly follow the \\\"Status quo\\\" scenario, that is, according to the current geopolitical patterns of the region.\",\"PeriodicalId\":42319,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Hrvatski Geografski Glasnik-Croatian Geographical Bulletin\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.4000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-01-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Hrvatski Geografski Glasnik-Croatian Geographical Bulletin\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.21861/hgg.2023.85.01.05\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q4\",\"JCRName\":\"GEOGRAPHY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Hrvatski Geografski Glasnik-Croatian Geographical Bulletin","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.21861/hgg.2023.85.01.05","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"GEOGRAPHY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Formation and comparison of scenarios of geopolitical development of the Western Balkans
The paper examines the geopolitical situation of the Western Balkans, a region defined along state borders by the European Union. The region includes Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Kosovo, North Macedonia and Serbia. For the purpose of the research, a survey was conducted among geography students in eight cities of the Western Balkans and in Zagreb. The survey was conducted according to the Delphi method in two rounds. By conducting research using a survey and the Delphi method, three scenarios of geopolitical development through 2031 were formed: "Euro-Atlantic integration", "Status quo" and "Reconstruction of the Western Balkans". By comparing the scenarios, it is apparent that the geopolitical development of the region in the next ten years will mostly follow the "Status quo" scenario, that is, according to the current geopolitical patterns of the region.
期刊介绍：
The Hrvatski geografski glasnik/Croatian Geographical Bulletin is a scientific journal that publishes the results of original theoretical and empirical geographical research, reviews from all geographic disciplines, spatially oriented papers from geosciences and other related scientific disciplines, as well as interdisciplinary papers. The journal particularly welcomes papers focused on spatial issues in Croatia, Central, Southern and South-Eastern Europe, as well as papers that present the results of previous research and themes published in the Hrvatski geografski glasnik/Croatian Geographical Bulletin. The journal is issued twice a year. A manuscript is submitted in English, and, if possible, in Croatian. Each submitted manuscript id reviewed by two peer-reviewers.
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